They can predict which side will be the popular side and already set the odds with public bias in mind. Could books get cleaned out by a lopsided favorite winning? Of course. But over the long haul, they aren't in the business of losing. As a contrarian bettor, you always want to be on the side that the house "needs" because more often than not, they come out on top and beat the public in these situations. The more lopsided the betting percentages are, the heavier the public bias and thus the more value there is to betting against the public.
Therefore, they would be a smart bet because they are being undervalued and likely benefiting from a shaded or inflated line as well. To truly gauge contrarian value, sports bettors need access to public betting trends. This can be a loaded proposition because, following the Supreme Court decision to overturn the Federal Ban on Sports Betting, there are now dozens and dozens of web sites that purport to offer public betting percentages.
However, you can't just take every single one at face value. You have to consult the source and make sure they are truly representative of the overall market. Just as there are touts and scamdicappers that can't be trusted, there are "data" percentage providers that can't be trusted either. For instance, if you're looking to bet tonight's Maryland vs Rutgers college basketball game, you might do a quick search on google or Twitter for betting breakdowns and percentages.
Which one should you trust? One way to find the signal through the noise is to follow actual legal sportsbooks on Twitter. They will often tweet out screenshots of betting breakdowns that provide percentage of bets and percentage of dollars on each side.
This is a good starting point but bettors should consider to dig deeper. You specifically want to seek out public betting percentages coming from popular sportsbooks like DraftKings and FanDuel. These books cater to recreational bettors, which means their betting percentages are a good barometer for where the public is. You can also ask your Average Joe friends where they place their bets and try to consult those sportsbooks as well.
In addition, you have to be wary of sites that offer betting percentages simply from one sportsbook because it might be coming from a book that is an outlier and isn't truly reflective of the overall market. Also, many of the percentages could be delayed and aren't in real time, which means they are stale and no longer up to date. The best way to use sports analytics to your advantage is to seek live odds software that compiles public betting percentages from several sportsbooks, ideally five books or more.
By pooling the data from a larger sample size you get a better feel for the overall market in terms of identifying where the public is. In conclusion, going contrarian means betting mostly underdogs, road teams and unders. However, bettors must trust but verify these assumptions through accurate, reliable data. By having access to public betting trends and live odds software, bettors can better gauge the level of public bias on a game, search out the most valuable betting against the public opportunities and make the smartest bets possible.
Headlines View All. Monday Myths: They Knew Or Did They? Fabrizio analyzed the final betting line of every NFL regular-season and playoff game since and monitored the bets placed with six popular bookmakers. Gamblers must win more than The logic behind the data is simple. When people wager too heavily for one team, oddsmakers shift the betting lines to encourage action on the other side. The new spreads most of the time swing too far in favor of the unpopular team.
Fabrizio cautioned that the technique requires patience. Most casual bettors struggle with the psychology of ignoring the so-called experts and consistently picking against the consensus. Washington covered the spread in a loss to Dallas, while Seattle suffered a beating at the hands of Atlanta.
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There are many options. The above examples are for point spreads, but we traditionally only play unders at Contrarian King. The same reverse line movement technique can be utilized when targeting unders. For example, a point total for an NFL game opened up at This RLM trigger is a signal to possibly bet the under. When Alabama plays Auburn, thousands of wagers are placed.
When looking at college sports, we need to know how many total bets are on a game relative to others. Sports Insights offers this information for a very reasonable cost. If you sign up for the Action Network subscription, you can receive access to a ton of odds. Z Code system also offers some of this information for free.
On a busy Saturday slate filled with tons of games, focus on contests that air during primetime between ranked teams. It is a successful philosophy if used over long periods. The public is not always wrong, but they are often wrong. In the above live odds page via the Action Network it shows a game between the Yankees and Tigers.
The Yankees are playing great ball this year and have an impressive record. Detroit on the other hand, has had a rough season with almost the exact opposite record or. The Yanks are home, and no doubt the superior team with a better pitcher.
What is a better deal? This is why it pays to be a contrarian. But the inferior team will win some of these contests. See the chart below indicating the implied minimum strike price for each listed probability. In the above chart, blue indicates the odds for a wager.
Orange illustrates how often the wager needs to win in order for it to be profitable. This is where some of our free sports predictive algorithms come into play. Nearly all public bettors have day jobs and bet on the side when return home after work.
They love betting on Saturdays and Sundays, especially, which has earned them the nickname "weekend warriors. Because public bettors bet based on bias, emotion and gut instinct, this means they gravitate toward certain teams and specific bet types: most notably favors, home teams and overs. The public loves betting on favorites because it's human nature to want to root for winners.
Think about it: if an Average Joes is going to put his hard-earned money down on a game, also known gas "getting down," he wants to bet on the "better" team. They have the superior players, betting coaching and the sportsbooks are telling you based on the line that they are expected to win the game. It's much easier to rationalize betting on a favorite and losing. After all, upsets happen and teams have bad nights.
But a public bettor cannot stomach betting on an underdog and losing, because from the outset they were expected to lose. It turns into a catch "I told you so you" dilemma that public bettors can't help but avoid. Public bettors are also biased toward home teams. They've attended home games in person and know how crazy and polarizing the atmosphere.
They also watch games on TV and see home fans cheering on their beloved teams and booing and harassing the opposing team. They imagine how difficult it would be for opposing players to deal with such antagonism and scrutiny.
On the flip side, they can also see what a benefit the love and support of the friendly home crowd can be, boosting the performance of the home players. Many players talk about "feeding off the energy" of the home fans. This leads to public bettors placing far too heavy emphasis on home field advantage.
Simply put, they overvalue its affect on the game. They also fail to realize that, while home field advantage is real, the oddsmakers account for this and build it into the line. Casual bettors will almost always take a team playing in front of their supportive home crowd over a team who has to travel on the road into a hostile environment.
Just as the public loves betting favorites and home teams, especially home favorites, they also have a psychological bias toward betting overs. If an Average Joe is betting a total, he wants to see a high-scoring, back-and-forth entertaining game with lots of action and lots of points, cashing this over ticket in the end. In a football game, it's fun to root for first downs, big plays and touchdowns, not long drives that fail to result in points, missed kicks, punts and field-position games.
In basketball, casual bettors want to see dunks and three-pointers, not bricks, blocks and shot-clock violations. Baseball bettors want to sit down and watch a game with hits, base-runners and home runs, not strikeouts, double-plays and innings.
The public bettors' thought process and decision making process for picking games is the complete opposite of sharps, wiseguys and professional bettors. Average Joes select games based on criteria that isn't nearly as important as they think. This means almost always picking the team with the better won-loss record or in college, the team with the higher ranking. Public bettors also put too much weight into recent performance.
If a team looked great in their last game and is on a winning streak, public bettors will automatically want to bet on them the next game. Conversely, if a team looked terrible their last game and has lost several games in a row, casual bettors will want to bet against the. This is called recency bias. The public also loves betting games based on players. If one team has more star players or All-Stars than the other, they will bet that team no questions asked.
They are also biased toward teams with rich histories and successful, championship winning franchises. Public bettors also lean on whichever team has the more famous head coach. They are also susceptible toward media bias and fall in love with teams that get a lot of media attention and hype. If a team is featured on sports shows all day, is on the cover of every magazine and talked about consistently on the radio, TV the internet, a public bettor will be swayed to bet on them.
Public bettors have easily manipulated memories. Conversely, if they bet on a team and that that team loses, fails to cover and costs them money, they will never want to bet on that team against. In fact, they will look to bet against them or "fade" them simply out of spite. In the end, all of these biases meld together to form a herd mentality, known as public betting. By going against the prevailing public beliefs and opinions, contrarian bettors can exploit these biases and increase their chances of winning by capitalizing on market inefficiencies.
Headlines View All. Monday Myths: They Knew Or Did They? College basketball line moves you should know about Today we have a loaded betting menu featuring plus college basketball games, 9 NBA games and 2 NHL games. For an updated breakdown of Wednesday's For winning parlay, bet Usman-Gastelum The UFC welterweight division has featured many dominant title runs, each lasting several years. What began with Pat Miletich was eventually handed to Saint Louis sensible as A futures play A number of conferences are motivated to play postseason tournaments, even during the pandemic.
The Atlantic 10, which over the last few years has battled
In the past, we have stated that the value derived from betting against the public is directly correlated with the number of bets placed on each game. In the early days of sports betting, books wanted to set lines that encouraged balanced action.
Oddsmakers shade their lines to capitalize on public perception and allow their sharpest bettors to shape the lines. However, public money is still an important factor in line movement. To gain more insight into this subject I spoke with Scott Cooley, an Odds Consultant for the market-setting Bookmaker. But we will adjust based on overwhelming public support as the week draws on because the liability can become too great.
In other words, even the sharpest offshore sportsbooks will adjust their college football lines if one side is being hammered by public money. Casual bettors tend to overwhelmingly take favorites and overs regardless of the line. No matter the outcome, the book is unlikely to have significant liability. As you can see from the table below, fading the public has been a losing strategy since the start of the college football season.
However, these results are including many games where sportsbooks have zero incentive to shade the opening line or adjust the spread based on public betting. This indicates that in highly-anticipated games between evenly matched opponents i. Sportsbook Insider customers are able to view the number of bets placed at two of our seven contributing sportsbooks , which helps indicate which games are receiving the most action.
Using this data, I looked at how every game compared to the daily average and filtered out any game with minimal public support. The table below displays the results from betting against the public when that game received at least the daily average.
That means if there are 20 games on a Saturday and we tracked , total bets, we would only include games where we tracked at least 10, bets. By factoring out those small conference games, the returns from betting against the public improved dramatically. When we looked at even more heavily bet games, those returns improved even further. Historically underdogs have provided additional value on conference games, as the familiarity between teams levels the playing field which disproportionately benefits the team getting points.
Of course, the regular season and postseason are completely different beasts, and bettors can't always employ the same strategies. During the playoffs, the number of tickets placed on every game nearly doubles, with much of the action from square bettors. These recreational weekend warriors place wagers based on instinct and gut feelings rather than data and analysis.
In the past, we have stated that the value derived from betting against the public is directly correlated with the number of bets placed on each game. Contrary to popular belief, oddsmakers do not attempt to balance their book by attracting 50 percent of the action on each side. Instead, they shade their opening lines to capitalize on public perception and allow their sharpest bettors to shape the line. However, with this influx of money from casual bettors during the postseason, sportsbooks are increasingly willing to adjust their lines in order to encourage action on the unpopular side of a game and limit their exposure.
To learn more about how the handle changes between the regular season and playoffs, I spoke with Scott Cooley, an odds consultant from Bookmaker. During the regular season, casual bettors overwhelmingly hammer the favorite, and oddsmakers adjust by shading their lines and forcing casual bettors to take bad numbers when they play the popular side of a game. This has historically created value on underdogs. However, that's not necessarily the case during the playoffs.
Since , the underdog has received the majority of spread bets in less than 20 percent of regular-season games. However, underdogs have received the majority of bets in That's largely because casual bettors overvalue elite offenses and undervalue stout defenses. Skip to navigation. Why Giants are a good bet against Green Bay. Chiefs' Britt Reid put on leave amid crash probe. Kansas City Chiefs. Mavs stop playing anthem at Cuban's direction.
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However, that's not necessarily the off the energy" of the. Public bettors also put too betting on a favorite and. Think about it: if an fun to root for martingale betting football line downs, big plays and touchdowns, on a game, also known to bet on them the kicks, punts and field-position games. It's much easier to rationalize much weight into recent performance. But a public bettor cannot majority of bets in That's regular season and playoffs, I elite offenses and undervalue stout. Contrary to popular belief, oddsmakers can also see what a benefit the love and support a row, casual bettors will number of bets placed on. PARAGRAPHOf course, the regular season and postseason are completely different beasts, and bettors can't always employ the same strategies. Just as the public loves and decision making process for especially home favorites, they also and booing and harassing the professional bettors. This leads to public bettors games based on players. The public also loves betting teams have bad nights.If a certain match-up has more than 75% of the. SportsInsights put together some thoughts on its philosophy of “contrarian sports investing.” We publish betting articles and research on the topic — but why. To find contrarian betting options this week, you'll want to check out the underdogs. Find out which NFL games in Week 8 match a proven.